Monday, February 03, 2020

Extensive OR Impressive - Why the worry cults will wear themselves out


Extensive OR Impressive Fires - Catastrophic as the worried say .
Here is why the worry cults will wear themselves out  and why they are already wearing us thin
with their ignorance and incompetence ;  They can't even see what smoke means or how combustion equations work . Press??  don't bother - employ scientists or find some who know things.

Doing proper science is fine ( its what i am good at -esp on environment) the equation 

The burning question 

CHn+O2=CO2 +H2O
Smoke occurs when there is incomplete combustion and there has been lots of smoke this summer 19/20  , Does this gel with all the catastrophy  talk ? No    when the water generated by combustion is not removed the equation slows down and we get half burnt vegetation . Too much water NOT too little.  Too little wind too much smoke     MORE See HERE 


What is not  good ( and in epidemic proportions ) is people doing suspect linkages and claiming it is science. Such short circuit people worship science partly because they don't practice the real rigors of science; where one conclusion ends and still leads you to another question ;  where not just one fact wins,  but every equation in the chain has to work and work consistently to drive competent action  . http://misplacedconcreteness.blogspot.com. We are not the clever country if we keep doing this .

You see we told them - the stupid States over 20 years ago;  If they create an emergency department it will bog itself down in creating emergencies;  and more importantly, it will treat ALL emergencies as needing them as chiefs to control them - a sort of clone of the modern poly who thinks he or she is a parent to the people. God save us from such hypocrisy and tyranny monoculture.

Fortunately the Victorian government  took our advice and didn't create the National Safety Council . At least in those days, they thought protection ( always their main job )so they used the word Safety . Lost touch completely what we want governments to do . With the stupid name the states give them ---- there is no hope.
Today with their blinkers on , and them driving at "high solving speed" to edges they never saw before,  the reactionaries only ever see and feel a catastrophic thing coming

The press and the people rightly want to support the CFA , but a little knowledge is a dangerous thing and in high risk situations  a distracting thing . 3 agencies competing means 3 methods and where best do those methods work . Regional solutions not CEO rubbish
CFA cannot be expected to protect us from forest fires - its complete madness. The States are completely hopeless in managing the public estate ( hoping nothing will happen by doing nothing )
And the net chatter on causes and solutions is often not helping but often better targeted thatn the mega nonsense makers . @otways news

Shut up and listen ; speculation is for leaders on ground
QandA on Monday was like Tony Jones's last program--- a feast of dumb distractions     Thankfully Tony s helicopter solutions weren't mentioned . We don't want another panic move that costs the earth and leaves management thinking the only solutions are in the heavens.

The first conclusion of merit was put by Jim Molan and put because he is a good scientist in that he knows the limits of his knowledge.


First  conclusion :  The fires were some of the most extensive .
Next question
  1. Were they the worst fires seen so far? where and why ( wind fuel humidity .....what) 
  2. Were they really some of the worst in living memory ?
  3. What would a fire expert say were critical needs for catastrophic fire and where were they met ?
  4. Did the panic merchants  do what they could to warn the government  this season ( more this more that)
    The evidence is there somewhere . its not shreeded ?
    Practical direct words were printed surely - this is a science in practice matter surely  

Labels: