Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Climate Change - Is it the great moral challenge of our time ?

There are then 3 key aspects to this question . There is

  1.  Global warming ,( only the Anthro bit) ( Science)  GW  AGW 
  2. What we do about it and      ( Technology )( Politics ) Assuming we can   There is to date no agreement about what we can do to change the risk ---as stated   the options are CCA1 CCA2 -20 
  3. We Must do ( Moral) ( Politics )  Many like Kevin Rudd  , The Greens and Labor say we MUST do something about it .CCAI -20 Leaving aside the reality that we don't know what these advocates really means on the ground-- for the moment .The advocates talk about " strong action " and imply a tax of some sort on somebody - not exactly concrete actions .Who would have thought the reactionaries would ever use a moral argument but they are. ( see Susan Neiman for anyone who wants to argue that CCA1 is set solutions from science) 
Conclusion 1 : Noone can go anywhere with this because we haven't got past 1st base . 
Conclusion  2   Does the issue have Moral Status ?  Clearly only for some . For many of us No  
According to traditional western thinking CC can't be a moral challenge because men are free under God to act until such time as they know they are doing "the wrong thing" . Many of us have no such knowledge. If your are not sure about whether you are sinning,  you have have no obligation to act . Moreover you should not force the issue as many are doing . Knowledge is not information  so it can't be equated for the purposes of political argument. Freedom of belief and speech are connected .

If you are living in fear maybe your need to relook at your faith.The only way our society can really adopt cultural change is if you can  get confession . Coercion on the basis of your more complete knowledge could rightly be considered tyranny.


The science and the substance in summary 

  1. Assuming we can 't do anything about GW , or that we don't need to , is not discussed properly  See the basic physics and geological argument below that GW throughout Geological history that says GW puts more moisture into the  atmosphere which means more clouds and wetter world , We know for example that the many and frequent cold periods in Geological History are Dry periods .      There are radiation and other physics . The common use of montorung and modeling is akin to meddling with statistics. 
  2. All the main evidence ( sea levels arctic ice etc and now coral bleaching ( see posts below) A litany of correlations that go nowhere  near causation . The latest coral bleaching change  was stated by profs within the ocean science as something that will recover by itself . The discussion of resilience by advocates of CCA is enough to take me ignore them . 
  3. The move from Global warming to CC    No scientist I know wants to accept the nonsense target that is the change to the catchall crap phrase "change" . Its in the nature of both weather and the climate to change . CC was clearly was substituted  for GW and AGW about 10 years ago because the case for acting against AGW alone was not clear , 

Summary


Advocates of CCA and CCA1 completely lost me when they changed channels from AGW to Climate Change CC-, They ALSO can't be taken seriously with imperatives on the ground when they are unclear about the imperatives in the air (My work is with the practical implications of fluid  and gas science )..
Advocates must regroup and answer thinking peoples doubts in ALL three areas  before they will again get the attention of thinking practical scientists. 

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Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Reviving interest in History and Culture -- a popular new course

UNSW have made headlines by pointing the finger at good old James Cook, Nothing appeals to more people than having a good go at someone - esp someone who appears goody two shoes or in the case of British legends- goody two shoes culture --who cares about the facts
 The popularity of such nonnews and part pictures parading shows how widespread meanness is - the glass half empty brigade is well and truly alive in Universities, making them more than half dead
  .
Not only has the paper appeared to have discovered something ( which it hasn't and therefore doesn't qualify for news ) but its got away with that grand political ambition of presuming to state the need for cultural change . A very clever University on the surface. 

is UNSW    HISTORY   major   a new  4 yr course in storytelling
YEAR1  Tantalizing Titbits of history 
YEAR  2 Reviving interest  in the dying art
Semester 1 --by rewriting history
Semester 2 -- by changing the language
YEAR 3  Cultural change and how to achieve it ,  Overly ambitious polys encouraged 
YEAR 4  How to be as successful as Dan Brown .

Post graduate doctorates offered in
  • How to protect your discoveries from being undermined by new facts :
  • Writing the sequel  and
  • Complete guide to storytelling and 
  • Getting away with your version of the story in media and parliament

    get in early a very popular course 

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Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Tyrants or Tyranny?: The real issues in the Desert

The French are going to bomb the hell out something this week as a result  of serious terror driven killing there.    The West is prone to calling the problem that of a tyrant when it is really more about tyranny and the tyranny of the place and space  .http://iscast.org.au/scarcity-and-abundance

Anger is a good response to anger ( West no longer seems to know this ) IF it targets the real reason for it . The knife and the bullets are incidental, not formative .

Both sides are therefore shooting from the hip .Its a domestic no sane man would get involved in - except if he listened after sunset. .

Agree with Greg Sherridan in the Australian  about our immature ideas of "political reform" : - we have a unreasonable quick fix approach to the deep problems of a struggling desert economy/ methods that work  We in the West are as irrational as anyone by promoting " practical action " which involves coercion using the overly simple technique  of one vote one value, ( just as one example )
The frustration of the people in that area is deeply seated in the land and how they want to use it .They have to have hope and therefore some alternative idealism / way forward.These are not things easily offered,  but objective resilience experts can help   Better targeted investment is best - schools scholarship and migration maybe?   


Understanding is the best way of resolving conflict , The ageing West doesn't even understand its own angst ( egwhy its own kids are vulnerable to idealism)

Did noone there se that all the young people pictured in The Archibald Prize have no faces .  Till we have faces ---- identity problems abound in both the East and West  

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Monday, October 12, 2015

Trust politicians to know what needs doing. You have to be joking

It has to be said despite all the ridicule of Climate change deniers that the  case for stopping the use of coal and other fossil fuels is at best unproven -- the big push has got lots of money to keep it hot but the substance and solutions have been cold all along.
Sound students of science and politics have known all along that talk is cheap on solutions to complex problems --  that doesn't stop stupid politicians opening their mouths and naming nothing that works - and damaging more than they help.
More importantly the half baked effort and shoring up up of unsubstantiated methods is extremely costly and distracting as pointed out by the Cornwall Alliance .

The computer climate models that are the only reason for fears of dangerous, manmade global warming have proven wrong. They predict warming at twice the rate actually observed since the 1970s, and they failed to predict the complete absence of warming since January 1997. There remains, therefore, no good reason for the fears.
It follows that policies to fight global warming fight a non-problem. They waste trillions of dollars needed instead to help the world’s poor meet much more urgent needs. In developed countries they slow, stop, or reverse economic growth, destroy jobs, and raise energy costs, harming everyone—especially the poor and elderly. And, by depriving developing nations of the abundant, affordable, reliable energy they need to rise and stay out of poverty, they would condemn them to more generations of poverty, disease, suffering, and death.

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Sunday, August 16, 2015

Someone will commit suicide if we don't give them what they want

This was the import of Penny Wong's reason why we should ALL vote for SSM ASAP . If you give children what they want  they can in later life commit suicide .Typical green labor to talk coorelation as causation and do things the sub science way -- so much for the future of Green Labor . Just giving people what they want is half the problem in Australia . Who needs leaders like these?

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Monday, October 27, 2014

Ebola - something for the worry warriors to keep the news service going ?

Ebol is not a virus like another . Sure its dangerous --and there are high risks of infection in countries where its spreading at the moment . But we should leave it to experts ; not vent our spleens when it appears our leaders don't care , as the Representative aristocracy of the left insisted on QandA  tonight .
This group know you can believe in both ; you can be all things to all men ; have your cake and eat it . Talk tough but allow everyone to do what they think is right .But you have to stop people talking about " whats needful" because that could take too long and even threatening to your fix .
 If you have the right people in your democracy you will be proved right . Worry brothers when one Rowan ,or even one expert appears because it may expose the panel as a bunch of  incompetent but well aligned chatterers who are linked up for the point of sychofancy.

Like the young people who want to stop people dying in Syria at the moment ,  going to the site of dying and high risk to help , may not help . You can be just a nuisance ,Your airfare alone could shelter 1000's of refugees in a neighboring country or 1000 chats on heigene by a locally trained nurse .
The disease is not as easily spread as the media make out . Katherine mentioned millions - seems very unlikely. We won't just wait and do nothing we will listen and see ifbthere is anything we can  or others more suitbly placed,  can do
As was powerfully put Labor still don't get it ---- Their love affair with Greenlabor .

"We are never short of good intentions,  we are  just short of implementors" ( Woolworth chairman )

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Wednesday, October 08, 2014

Religious people are prone to reject Science

Brian Hoskings won't be welcome in Australia once they realize Brian Hoskings  is going to operate like a scientist . What the CC movement want is a token professor of note , scientist or maybe  a book with 99% of scientists signing a document  that only Christine Milne has the gall to write. All they could find recently is an economist who has suspect qualifications in his home territory .  Just writing a short statement about CC to include AGW , C02 and carbon economy  would test the intellect of any High Priest -- not going to happen because they would have tried  ( conference after conference but not one dominated by scientists general) .

Brian Hoskings won't be welcome in Australia,  because like most scientists,  he makes the subject of problems risks and problems sound too complex to solve.

Paradoxically most of us earth scientists are still interested in the science,, and even the technology ( but less so in my case)  . I wonder how many others are in either (although the common  attachment to a toy by a boy is a bit terrifying)  . 
---We also know we all be extremely taxed by implementing any changes to change how our people use energy -- if we want action .
---We also know as mature practical people that government probably should NOT ever be trusted with a tax to experiment with solutions.( young ones naturally might differ and they deserve a job with better specs that Parties EVER would design for them )  I am convinced we would nearly all draw the line with giving ANY government more money to make us behave better. Anyone want to disagree ?

And whats the faith of the fearful  based on .... really ? let me suggest "Fear of scarcity",,,not Co2 or carbon but Oil  . Well that's interesting --if true  .They don't know much about E10 or algae to say that . They don't know much about history ecology , targeting human behavior ( the real worry ??) and sustainable agroecosystems ( surely a good place for Australia to spend more money !) Can't win war if you don't shoot straight and have everyone clear about the target . Huge problem for believers !

If going to win a productivity argument with thinking people,  all religions must state their principal concerns about evil; . where it is and what its name is need to be nailed to the door . Otherwise it won't last ....... and never ever on fear alone .

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