Sunday, August 15, 2021

Some answers to questions would help - in the constant flood of new fixes

 I have tried as a reasonable risk management expert to stay out of the incredible noisemaking and wild  speculation by the born to worry warrior merchants over the last 18 months .I am not an antivaxxer but we need more clarity about the risks and where we are going with the latest "solutions ". 

 For 18months  I have written to the so called experts each week in the hope of answers which would hopefully help me to support them .  My questions were pretty basic questions ( see below)  but like many statements that arise from the closeted boardroom of Victoria Ave they are not only not satisfying,   the answers  are incomplete:  Romans 13 suggest public servants don't stop work until the questions are answered--esp when trying to keep order in a crisis.
I think due diligence and honesty on this would help calm the continuing panic and more importantly the mood of no cooperation. 
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Why no clear answers to some questions like Cost benefit and risk management ones ? Its also , as many of our leaders dont want to admit  they don't know but that many wannabes do ,  just want to produce a statement  a day .
Its possible that they in the city haven't got enough practical microbiologists to know what a real world biome looks like??  Do we get honest - "don't knows"? 
They even ,against my advice , see other posts , use the precautionary principle and allow all sorts of unqualified staff to do the same,( Its a professional tool to be used only by the best --not a blanket do nothing tool) The PC clause justifies closure without reason, when reason would be expected to  help with compliance . 

To use just one example . the recent idea of a bubble is shakier in concept than it ever was--  if its supposed to work .
Single people and the aged are ones most at risk, but somehow if they are not having sex with each other or they don't work for the government  they create  really big risks beyond that  .Who drafts these endless redrafts?  When the police committee finally got around to defining a bubble they make it only 2 people and only you and someone else .Its unworkable and doesn't allow people to show common sense in making risk management decisions of their own .  
COVID is not the first time Premier Andrews, for example, has chosen coercion and fear therapy over education 
Any way you know what I mean .  unworkable and unfair and ultimately not weighing up the VARIUOS risks involved ( only deaths from COVID and even that we don't have that clear YET with comorbidities data ) .
Honest engagement and a full education  ( deaths hospitalizations comorbidities across the world )  is still absent and needed. 
While the attention seekers continue  to assume control,  the truth and half truth a answers to a growing list of questions , takes second place.
 Only recently i have confirmation from a key expert that the use of mutation and human creation by the media is probably very misleading .
 The rapid changes in the virus do not rely on genetic mutations (which are slow and via selection which we can control a bit ) but on poor  RNA replication ( which we presumably cannot control.) 
The expectation many of us had 18 mths ago,   that we would be limited not to death and inoculation control ( which maybe largely comorbidity) but to ameliorates and treatment s still seems to be relevant - if hot widely accepted . 

 These questions need answers please .   
Whatever and however big the threat , honesty will help all of us move on.

Monday, August 02, 2021

2021 The greatest crisis since hot air began

 After 18mths of speculation by the media and politicians about the origin and possible impact of Coronaviruses , it seems to me ,now as it did 18 months ago that the  panic is unjustified  and attempts to control it are unreasonable .

The media get in a panic about  many things very often and I as a risk assessor have my hands full trying to keep my balance about the few things i can claim some fully workable knowledge of (eg  Fire flood,landslide and water quality impacts ) .
In a strange paradox, governments have never seemed to the public more important and that certainly appeals to "the leper colony "( I don't agree with that projection but its truly how many Aussies see polys) .  

Ebola  panic got out of hand not that long ago when its etiology was known and its control within reasonable general practice to be expected , What's going on ? Today is 3rd August 2021  Updated in part 16th August .
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Some 50 years ago in microbiology we were taught that coronaviruses were notoriously prone to change. By the time you were 60 you were expected to  have antibodies to maybe 6 different variants . Higher comorbidities in 2020's are to be expected because so many more people are immunocompromised?

If what they say about Herd immunity in UK is widely accepted  ( again whose been defining it (HI) over the last 18 months )  , it may mean a big rethink in Australia? 
I am saying-- if  we still don't know the structural changes in both the virus and the antibodies ( I don't know but no one has said we do ) , the whole value of vaccines can be questioned.

This is the same issue the medical profession had with Coronaviruses 50 years ago . Again I am no expert .