Saturday, January 07, 2012

After the last deluge there will be another in a spot quite predictable

RE After the deluge ABCTV
Toowoomba ( also QLD ) floods were extremely dangerous,  but their predicatablility was not tackled by Paul Lockyer.  ABC seems to have moved from being  observer to participant in recent decades .Followers rather than leaders and even avoiding best practice training (go looking go reporting - esp someone OTHER than a poly)
Man's part in both prediction and avoidance of such disasters has yet to be properly addressed . Our sometimes sycophantic ABC celebrated the event today as " gods fault " , thereby failing to properly review the incompetent environmental planning that is now common .The problem is serious because many of the 170 who died in summer of 2009 ( near Marysville) need not have died either.

I year later for the flood , its nice of the ABC to let the QLD government agencies off the hook .  ABC4corners should investigate it as a case where the man made component and government incompetence should be addressed. In 2011 this sort of disaster should only occur in the third world.

The  huge additional rainfall drop resulting  from orographic effects is no news to some of us ; well known by some of us as risk management specialists ( see item in mid 2000 on designwithnature.blogspot.ccom) but not well documented in Aus Rain&Runoff journals.The Met Bureau can't be relied on either because they used to work with now defunct angencies with land based skills .
Reporters seem to have fallen for the simple modelling of polys who think agencies like themselves are " one hit wonders" - "experts on everything:" . Such crass stupidity explains why so much ABC reporting and analysing of environmental issues is so shallow - even hypocritical ( don't say its complex in one sentence and treat it as simple in another )
Over history the Met Bureau have also not maintained some important measure stations or reviewed the results of those stations properly ( my review of Benwerrin and Tanybryn records showed that huge 20 hour totals were not only likely( on an high return period) on specific sites and events. In earlier days I published several articles on very large 10-20 hour totals assocaited with winds rising up onto the ridges in both the Otways and in the new millennium  in Gippsland .

More disasters will happen while we create departmnts to manage them ( DAA-departments of administrative affairs)  and while "WE" think the met bureau ( or some venerated source who is not going to dispel your illusions) is god .    
In what millennia will Our dear Auntie do a proper review of the undermining of the clever country by reporting how polys clone their own crap - determining science research on the basis of their own predjudices denials and projections.  Bookmark this site and save yourself some embarrassment.


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